Mountain Home, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

892
FXUS65 KBOI 142036
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
236 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Southwest flow
aloft will keep the area generally warm and dry, with a slight
cooling trend thanks to an incoming upper level low pressure
system over the PacNW. A small area of monsoonal moisture will
push up from Nevada/Utah into the Magic Valley and near the
Idaho-Nevada border today and tomorrow. This will bring
afternoon showers and thunderstorms with a potential for outflow
winds up to 45 mph. Breezy afternoon westerly winds will occur
each day, with afternoon gusts generally up to 20-30 mph. Smoke
from area wildfires (namely Box/Rock) will create hazy skies,
primarily overnight and into the tomorrow morning.

The upper level trough extending from the low over British
Columbia will begin to move into southeast Oregon late on
Saturday, bringing a cold frontal passage. This will cool
temperatures down and bring widespread cloud cover, rain showers
and scattered thunderstorms over southeast Oregon. Some of this
moisture will make it into extreme Western Idaho by Saturday
evening, although probability is low.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... Southwest flow will
dominate through Wednesday, thanks to an upper-level low over the
Gulf of Alaska and a building ridge over the Four Corners region.
Saturday afternoon, a cold front will enter our area from the
northwest and stall out in eastern Oregon. This front will coincide
with a good stream of Pacific moisture, which will increase PWATs to
near the 90th percentile (ensemble mean values surpass an inch in
some areas). While it still looks like the better axis of moisture
will set up west of our area, there will be enough to support
chances of precipitation west of a line roughly from Rome to McCall.
For now, the chances of precipitation range from 15-50% with a 15-
20% chance of thunder, increasing as you move west from the
aforementioned line. However, if the stream of Pacific moisture
shifts east, chances may need to be increased. Come Sunday
afternoon, height falls aloft and PWATs near the 70th percentile
will allow for a more widespread chance of showers/thunder as
peak heating destabilizes the atmosphere. Chances of showers
outside of the Snake Plane Sunday afternoon range from 15-40%
with a 15-30% chance of thunderstorms. The chances of
showers/thunderstorms within the Snake Plane are non-zero...but
keeping them under 15% for now.

There is a 15-20% chance of showers/thunder in far western Baker
county come Monday afternoon. However, aside from that, dry air
advecting across our area will keep us dry beyond Sunday.
Temperatures will be near normal on Saturday, before warming a
couple of degrees each day through Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will be similar and lean a few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Local visibility restrictions due to wildfire smoke,
mainly in the w-central Idaho mtns to include McCall and Cascade.
Otherwise VFR. Cumulus buildups over the mtns with isolated
thunderstorms south of KTWF through 04Z this evening. Outflow winds
to 35 kt possible from showers/storms. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt
with local gusts up to 25 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. W-NW surface winds through Friday.

Weekend Outlook...Reduced visibility in smoke across the w-central
Idaho mtns. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day,
mostly over SE Oregon and higher terrain of SW Idaho producing gusty
outflow winds and locally heavy rain.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....DG